Municipal 2–0 Nueva Concepción: Result & Stats

Municipal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nueva Concepción

11/6/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio El Trébol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Municipal78%

×Draw15%

Nueva Concepción7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MunicipalExpected goals in this matchNueva Concepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.58

Municipal

2.46

Nueva Concepción

0.58

Municipal creates 324% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 22 away

1.97

creates per match

0.45

0.71

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Municipal

1.97

Nueva Concepción

0.45

allows per match

Municipal

0.71

Nueva Concepción

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par

Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Nueva Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Municipal or draw

93%

Municipal or Nueva Concepción

85%

Draw or Nueva Concepción

22%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+

56%

Nueva Concepción wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals

91%

Municipal 2+ goals

70%

Municipal 3+ goals

44%

Nueva Concepción 1+ goals

44%

Nueva Concepción 2+ goals

12%

Nueva Concepción 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)

92%

Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.71 · 159 matches

Nueva Concepción away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 1.97 + Nueva Concepción defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.46

Nueva Concepción attack 0.45 + Municipal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Municipal scores more

78%

level

15%

Nueva Concepción scores more

7%

Municipal at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff