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Municipal vs Marquense — Liga Nacional 2026

Municipal
Municipal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Marquense
Marquense
C. Archila 39'
J. Martínez 14', 5'
9/20/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 11Estadio El Trébol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Municipal69%
×Draw20%
Marquense11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal
1.98
Marquense
0.65

Municipal creates 205% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 44 away

creates per match

Municipal
2.03
Marquense
0.57

allows per match

Municipal
0.72
Marquense
1.93

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par
Marquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Marquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Municipal or draw
89%
Municipal or Marquense
80%
Draw or Marquense
31%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+
43%
Marquense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals
86%
Municipal 2+ goals
59%
Municipal 3+ goals
31%
Marquense 1+ goals
48%
Marquense 2+ goals
14%
Marquense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)
86%
Marquense (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.72 · 178 matches

Marquense away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 2.03 + Marquense defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Marquense attack 0.57 + Municipal defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Municipal scores more
69%
level
20%
Marquense scores more
11%

Municipal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Martínez
7'
D. Casas
14'
J. Martínez
39'
C. Archila
43'
F. Fuentes
64'
M. Ceballos
76'
J. Franco
Municipal
Marquense
S. Bini
Manager: S. Bini
H. Medford
Manager: H. Medford

Liga Nacional: Municipal 3–0 Marquense

Municipal beat Marquense 3-0 in Liga Nacional on September 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Martínez (5', 14'), C. Archila (39').

The match was played at Estadio El Trébol in Ciudad de Guatemala.