Municipal 1–1 Achuapa: Result & Stats

Municipal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Achuapa

2/15/2026

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 6Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Municipal65%

×Draw22%

Achuapa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MunicipalExpected goals in this matchAchuapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.70

Municipal

1.86

Achuapa

0.70

Municipal creates 166% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 122 away

1.97

creates per match

0.70

0.71

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Municipal

1.97

Achuapa

0.70

allows per match

Municipal

0.71

Achuapa

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par

Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Achuapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Municipal or draw

87%

Municipal or Achuapa

78%

Draw or Achuapa

35%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+

39%

Achuapa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals

84%

Municipal 2+ goals

55%

Municipal 3+ goals

28%

Achuapa 1+ goals

50%

Achuapa 2+ goals

16%

Achuapa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)

83%

Achuapa (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.71 · 159 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 1.97 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.86

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Municipal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Municipal scores more

65%

level

22%

Achuapa scores more

13%

Municipal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff