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Municipal San Ramón vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Municipal San Ramón
Municipal San Ramón
FT
1 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
J. Sancho 14'
9/27/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Municipal San Ramón45%
×Draw26%
Escazucena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal San Ramón
1.44
Escazucena
1.09

Municipal San Ramón creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 79 away

creates per match

Municipal San Ramón
1.18
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

Municipal San Ramón
0.91
Escazucena
1.71

finishing

Municipal San Ramón+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal San Ramón ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Municipal San Ramón or draw
71%
Municipal San Ramón or Escazucena
74%
Draw or Escazucena
55%

Winning margin

Municipal San Ramón wins by 2+
22%
Escazucena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Municipal San Ramón 1+ goals
76%
Municipal San Ramón 2+ goals
42%
Municipal San Ramón 3+ goals
18%
Escazucena 1+ goals
66%
Escazucena 2+ goals
30%
Escazucena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Municipal San Ramón (draw refunded)
61%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal San Ramón at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal San Ramón attack 1.18 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Escazucena attack 1.28 + Municipal San Ramón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Municipal San Ramón scores more
45%
level
26%
Escazucena scores more
29%

Municipal San Ramón at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Municipal San Ramón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Sancho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal San Ramón vs Escazucena

Municipal San Ramón beat Escazucena 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 27, 2020.

Goals: J. Sancho (14').

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.