Municipal San Ramón 0–1 AD Carmelita

Municipal San Ramón

FT

0 – 1

AD Carmelita

J. Alvarado 15'

2/21/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Municipal San Ramón42%

×Draw27%

AD Carmelita31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal San RamónExpected goals in this matchAD Carmelita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.11

Municipal San Ramón

1.36

AD Carmelita

1.11

Municipal San Ramón creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 104 away

1.18

creates per match

1.31

0.91

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Municipal San Ramón

1.18

AD Carmelita

1.31

allows per match

Municipal San Ramón

0.91

AD Carmelita

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal San Ramón+0.00on par

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal San Ramón ↓

AD Carmelita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Municipal San Ramón or draw

69%

Municipal San Ramón or AD Carmelita

73%

Draw or AD Carmelita

58%

Winning margin

Municipal San Ramón wins by 2+

20%

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Municipal San Ramón 1+ goals

74%

Municipal San Ramón 2+ goals

39%

Municipal San Ramón 3+ goals

16%

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

67%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

30%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Municipal San Ramón (draw refunded)

58%

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal San Ramón at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal San Ramón attack 1.18 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Municipal San Ramón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Municipal San Ramón scores more

42%

level

27%

AD Carmelita scores more

31%

Municipal San Ramón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Municipal San Ramón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Alvarado

44'

S. Castillo

82'

R. Arrieta

82'

R. Arrieta

90+2'

E. Morera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff