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Municipal Salamanca vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Municipal Salamanca
Municipal Salamanca
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Concón National
Concón National
5/25/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Salamanca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Municipal Salamanca45%
×Draw27%
Concón National28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Salamanca
1.38
Concón National
1.04

Municipal Salamanca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Municipal Salamanca
1.28
Concón National
1.65

allows per match

Municipal Salamanca
0.44
Concón National
1.48

finishing

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par
Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Salamanca ↓

Concón National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Municipal Salamanca or draw
72%
Municipal Salamanca or Concón National
73%
Draw or Concón National
55%

Winning margin

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+
21%
Concón National wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals
75%
Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals
40%
Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals
16%
Concón National 1+ goals
65%
Concón National 2+ goals
28%
Concón National 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)
61%
Concón National (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Salamanca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.28 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Concón National attack 1.65 + Municipal Salamanca defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Municipal Salamanca scores more
45%
level
27%
Concón National scores more
28%

Municipal Salamanca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Municipal Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal Salamanca vs Concón National

Concón National beat Municipal Salamanca 3-2 in Segunda División on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca in Salamanca.