Municipal Limeño 2–1 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Municipal Limeño

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense FC

N. Muñoz 88', 47'

G. Baires 69'

1/23/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 2Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Municipal Limeño41%

×Draw28%

Platense FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal LimeñoExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Municipal Limeño

1.29

Platense FC

1.10

Municipal Limeño creates 17% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Municipal Limeño

1.35

Platense FC

1.07

allows per match

Municipal Limeño

1.13

Platense FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Limeño ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Municipal Limeño or draw

68%

Municipal Limeño or Platense FC

72%

Draw or Platense FC

59%

Winning margin

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+

18%

Platense FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals

72%

Municipal Limeño 2+ goals

37%

Municipal Limeño 3+ goals

14%

Platense FC 1+ goals

67%

Platense FC 2+ goals

30%

Platense FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)

56%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Limeño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Limeño attack 1.35 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Municipal Limeño scores more

41%

level

28%

Platense FC scores more

32%

Municipal Limeño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

N. Muñoz

59'

I. Herrera← J. Delgado

60'

W. Novoa← V. Landazuri

63'

E. Acosta← M. Morales

64'

H. González← K. Sagastizado

67'

E. Sánchez← J. Valladares

69'

G. Baires

73'

C. García← R. Gómez

73'

W. García← C. Arévalo

73'

S. González← F. Escobar

88'

N. Muñoz

Municipal

Platense

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: C. Romero

63'▲E. Acosta←▼M. Morales

64'▲H. González←▼K. Sagastizado

67'▲E. Sánchez←▼J. Valladares

73'▲C. García←▼R. Gómez

73'▲W. García←▼C. Arévalo

Municipal Limeño substitutes

AcostaGonzálezSánchezGarcíaGarcía

Manager: G. Rivera

59'▲I. Herrera←▼J. Delgado

60'▲W. Novoa←▼V. Landazuri

73'▲S. González←▼F. Escobar

Platense FC substitutes

HerreraNovoaGonzález