Municipal Limeño 1–1 FAS: Result & Stats

Municipal Limeño

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FAS

2/5/2026

Primera Division · Clausura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Municipal Limeño38%

×Draw27%

FAS35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal LimeñoExpected goals in this matchFAS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.21

Municipal Limeño

1.26

FAS

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 156 away

1.35

creates per match

1.28

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Municipal Limeño

1.35

FAS

1.28

allows per match

Municipal Limeño

1.13

FAS

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

FAS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Limeño ↓

FAS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Municipal Limeño or draw

65%

Municipal Limeño or FAS

73%

Draw or FAS

62%

Winning margin

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+

16%

FAS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals

72%

Municipal Limeño 2+ goals

36%

Municipal Limeño 3+ goals

13%

FAS 1+ goals

70%

FAS 2+ goals

34%

FAS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)

52%

FAS (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Limeño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

FAS away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Limeño attack 1.35 + FAS defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

FAS attack 1.28 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Municipal Limeño scores more

38%

level

27%

FAS scores more

35%

Municipal Limeño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff