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Municipal Limeño vs Dragón — Primera Division 2019

Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dragón
Dragón
2/22/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 8Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Municipal Limeño46%
×Draw27%
Dragón27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Limeño
1.43
Dragón
1.02

Municipal Limeño creates 40% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 63 away

creates per match

Municipal Limeño
1.35
Dragón
0.92

allows per match

Municipal Limeño
1.13
Dragón
1.51

finishing

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par
Dragón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Limeño ↓

Dragón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Municipal Limeño or draw
73%
Municipal Limeño or Dragón
73%
Draw or Dragón
54%

Winning margin

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
23%
Dragón wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
76%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
42%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
17%
Dragón 1+ goals
64%
Dragón 2+ goals
27%
Dragón 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
63%
Dragón (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Limeño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Dragón away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Limeño attack 1.35 + Dragón defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dragón attack 0.92 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Municipal Limeño scores more
46%
level
27%
Dragón scores more
27%

Municipal Limeño at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal Limeño vs Dragón

Municipal Limeño beat Dragón 2-0 in Primera Division on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos in Santa Rosa de Lima.