Municipal Liberia 3–4 Rosario: Result & Stats

Municipal Liberia

FT

3 – 4

Rosario

2/1/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Municipal Liberia46%

×Draw26%

Rosario28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal LiberiaExpected goals in this matchRosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Municipal Liberia

1.52

Rosario

1.13

Municipal Liberia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 4 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

1.01

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Municipal Liberia

1.55

Rosario

1.25

allows per match

Municipal Liberia

1.01

Rosario

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw

72%

Municipal Liberia or Rosario

74%

Draw or Rosario

54%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+

23%

Rosario wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals

78%

Municipal Liberia 2+ goals

45%

Municipal Liberia 3+ goals

20%

Rosario 1+ goals

68%

Rosario 2+ goals

31%

Rosario 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)

62%

Rosario (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Rosario away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.55 + Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rosario attack 1.25 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more

46%

level

26%

Rosario scores more

28%

Municipal Liberia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff