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Municipal Liberia vs Deportivo Cartagena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
FT
0 – 2
Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
8/11/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Municipal Liberia48%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Cartagena29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Liberia
1.81
Deportivo Cartagena
1.36

Municipal Liberia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

creates per match

Municipal Liberia
1.55
Deportivo Cartagena
1.72

allows per match

Municipal Liberia
1.01
Deportivo Cartagena
2.06

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par
Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw
71%
Municipal Liberia or Deportivo Cartagena
77%
Draw or Deportivo Cartagena
52%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
84%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
54%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
27%
Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.55 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more
48%
level
23%
Deportivo Cartagena scores more
29%

Municipal Liberia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal Liberia vs Deportivo Cartagena

Deportivo Cartagena beat Municipal Liberia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño in Liberia.