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Yeovil Town vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
8/21/2018League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Huish Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Yeovil Town32%
×Draw27%
Oldham41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeovil Town
1.14
Oldham
1.33

Oldham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 111 away

creates per match

Yeovil Town
0.83
Oldham
1.16

allows per match

Yeovil Town
1.50
Oldham
1.45

finishing

Yeovil Town+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yeovil Town or draw
59%
Yeovil Town or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
68%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town wins by 2+
13%
Oldham wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yeovil Town 1+ goals
68%
Yeovil Town 2+ goals
32%
Yeovil Town 3+ goals
11%
Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
38%
Oldham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town (draw refunded)
44%
Oldham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town attack 0.83 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Oldham attack 1.16 + Yeovil Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yeovil Town scores more
32%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
41%

Oldham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeovil Town vs Oldham

Yeovil Town and Oldham drew 0-0 in League Two on August 21, 2018.

The match was played at Huish Park in Yeovil.