Mumbai City 2–2 SC Delhi: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

SC Delhi

P. Noufal 17'

J. Pereyra 3'

M. Babovic 73'

M. Mohammed 45'

3/8/2026

Indian Super League · Round 4Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mumbai City49%

×Draw26%

SC Delhi26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchSC Delhi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Mumbai City

1.54

SC Delhi

1.04

Mumbai City creates 48% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.36

SC Delhi

1.00

allows per match

Mumbai City

1.07

SC Delhi

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

SC Delhi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

SC Delhi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

74%

Mumbai City or SC Delhi

74%

Draw or SC Delhi

51%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

25%

SC Delhi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

79%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

45%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

20%

SC Delhi 1+ goals

65%

SC Delhi 2+ goals

28%

SC Delhi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

66%

SC Delhi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

SC Delhi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.36 + SC Delhi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

SC Delhi attack 1.00 + Mumbai City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mumbai City scores more

49%

level

26%

SC Delhi scores more

26%

Mumbai City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Babovic

SC Delhi · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

J. Pereyra↳ A. Mishra

4'

Nora Fernandes

17'

P. Noufal↳ B. Fernandes

21'

Lamgoulen Semkholun

41'

Valpuia

45'

M. Mohammed↳ Rafael Ribeiro

46'

V. Partap Singh← J. Pereyra

66'

O. Fane← M. Azhar

66'

D. Murgaokar← M. Aimen

67'

Joni Kauko

68'

Z. Zothanpuia← P. Noufal

73'

M. Babovic

77'

F. R. Nazareth← J. Kauko

77'

B. Chhetri← S. Panwar

77'

Ramhlunchhunga← J. Sunny

87'

A. Chhikara← B. Fernandes

87'

A. Mehta← L. Hangshing

90+8'

Ramhlunchhunga

90'

Abdul Halik Hudu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MumbaiSC

Overview

53%Possession47%

6Total Shots13

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.25

5Corners1

10Fouls5

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target2

2Off Target8

1Blocked3

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

423Total Passes381

330Accurate Passes299

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1