Mumbai City 1–1 NorthEast United: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NorthEast United

L. Chhangte 85'

J. Madathil 48'

3/1/2026

Indian Super League · Round 3Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mumbai City38%

×Draw27%

NorthEast United35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchNorthEast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Mumbai City

1.32

NorthEast United

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

1.38

1.13

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.40

NorthEast United

1.38

allows per match

Mumbai City

1.13

NorthEast United

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

NorthEast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

65%

Mumbai City or NorthEast United

73%

Draw or NorthEast United

62%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

17%

NorthEast United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

73%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

38%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

15%

NorthEast United 1+ goals

71%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

36%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

52%

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

NorthEast United away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.40 + NorthEast United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

NorthEast United attack 1.38 + Mumbai City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mumbai City scores more

38%

level

27%

NorthEast United scores more

35%

Mumbai City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Kauko

Mumbai City · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

Danny Meitei

26'

Asheer Akhtar

45+2'

Joni Kauko

48'

J. Madathil↳ L. Lalbiaknia

51'

Jithin MS

60'

Sahil Panwar

61'

M. L. Nickson← D. Meitei

65'

Lalrinzuala Lalbiaknia

68'

P. Noufal← V. Partap Singh

78'

Andy Rodríguez

78'

T. Singh← P. Gogoi

78'

L. Vanlalvunga← L. Lalbiaknia

83'

85'

89'

90+2'

90+3'

Z. Zothanpuia← J. Kauko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MumbaiNorthEast

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots7

1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.63

8Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target1

6Off Target5

4Blocked1

6Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

453Total Passes290

355Accurate Passes180

78%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards7

3Offsides1