Mumbai City 2–1 Minerva Punjab: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Minerva Punjab

11/2/2023

Indian Super League · Round 6Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mumbai City45%

×Draw25%

Minerva Punjab30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchMinerva Punjab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Mumbai City

1.56

Minerva Punjab

1.23

Mumbai City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

1.63

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.63

Minerva Punjab

1.33

allows per match

Mumbai City

1.14

Minerva Punjab

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Minerva Punjab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

70%

Mumbai City or Minerva Punjab

75%

Draw or Minerva Punjab

55%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

23%

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

79%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

46%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

21%

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

71%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

35%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

60%

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 70 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.63 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Minerva Punjab attack 1.33 + Mumbai City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mumbai City scores more

45%

level

25%

Minerva Punjab scores more

30%

Mumbai City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff