Mulhouse 1–3 Lyon Duchere: Result & Stats

Mulhouse

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lyon Duchere

E. Delbos 79'

V. Fuss 90+6'

M. Belarbi 83'

A. Moke 58'

11/27/2021

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade de l'Ill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mulhouse19%

×Draw19%

Lyon Duchere62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MulhouseExpected goals in this matchLyon Duchere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.29

Mulhouse

1.18

Lyon Duchere

2.29

Lyon Duchere creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.57

2.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Mulhouse

1.50

Lyon Duchere

2.57

allows per match

Mulhouse

2.00

Lyon Duchere

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mulhouse+0.00on par

Lyon Duchere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulhouse ↓

Lyon Duchere →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Mulhouse or draw

38%

Mulhouse or Lyon Duchere

81%

Draw or Lyon Duchere

81%

Winning margin

Mulhouse wins by 2+

Lyon Duchere wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Mulhouse 1+ goals

69%

Mulhouse 2+ goals

33%

Mulhouse 3+ goals

12%

Lyon Duchere 1+ goals

90%

Lyon Duchere 2+ goals

66%

Lyon Duchere 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Mulhouse (draw refunded)

23%

Lyon Duchere (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mulhouse at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Lyon Duchere away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mulhouse attack 1.50 + Lyon Duchere defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lyon Duchere attack 2.57 + Mulhouse defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mulhouse scores more

19%

level

19%

Lyon Duchere scores more

62%

Lyon Duchere at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lyon Duchere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

A. Moke

63'

F. Brahmia← I. El-Moussaid

63'

M. Kanté← D. Viana

71'

Y. Sadio← T. Matuba

79'

E. Delbos

81'

Y. N'Diaye← N. LGhoul

83'

M. Belarbi

90+6'

I. Ndoye

90+3'

A. Husejnovic← E. Delbos

90+4'

M. Soumah← M. Belarbi

90+6'

V. Fuss

Mulhouse

Lyon

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Descombes

63'▲F. Brahmia←▼I. El-Moussaid

63'▲M. Kanté←▼D. Viana

71'▲Y. Sadio←▼T. Matuba

90+3'▲A. Husejnovic←▼E. Delbos

Mulhouse substitutes

BrahmiaKantéSadioHusejnovicShaïekMejriEnza-Yamissi

Manager: N. Le Bellec

81'▲Y. N'Diaye←▼N. LGhoul

90+4'▲M. Soumah←▼M. Belarbi

Lyon Duchere substitutes

N'DiayeSoumahKacouNegouaiBenhamzaOunMessalti