Mulhouse 2–1 Jura Dolois: Result & Stats

Mulhouse

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jura Dolois

11/18/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de l'Ill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mulhouse43%

×Draw26%

Jura Dolois31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MulhouseExpected goals in this matchJura Dolois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Mulhouse

1.42

Jura Dolois

1.17

Mulhouse creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mulhouse

1.50

Jura Dolois

0.33

allows per match

Mulhouse

2.00

Jura Dolois

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mulhouse+0.00on par

Jura Dolois+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulhouse ↓

Jura Dolois →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mulhouse or draw

69%

Mulhouse or Jura Dolois

74%

Draw or Jura Dolois

57%

Winning margin

Mulhouse wins by 2+

20%

Jura Dolois wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mulhouse 1+ goals

76%

Mulhouse 2+ goals

41%

Mulhouse 3+ goals

17%

Jura Dolois 1+ goals

69%

Jura Dolois 2+ goals

33%

Jura Dolois 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mulhouse (draw refunded)

58%

Jura Dolois (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mulhouse at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Jura Dolois away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mulhouse attack 1.50 + Jura Dolois defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jura Dolois attack 0.33 + Mulhouse defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mulhouse scores more

43%

level

26%

Jura Dolois scores more

31%

Mulhouse at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mulhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff