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Mülheimer vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Mülheimer
Mülheimer
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
4/17/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28RuhrStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mülheimer40%
×Draw21%
SF Baumberg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheimer
1.94
SF Baumberg
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 95 away

creates per match

Mülheimer
1.94
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

Mülheimer
1.94
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

Mülheimer+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheimer ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mülheimer or draw
61%
Mülheimer or SF Baumberg
79%
Draw or SF Baumberg
60%

Winning margin

Mülheimer wins by 2+
21%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mülheimer 1+ goals
86%
Mülheimer 2+ goals
58%
Mülheimer 3+ goals
30%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
85%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
57%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mülheimer (draw refunded)
50%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheimer at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheimer attack 1.94 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + Mülheimer defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mülheimer scores more
40%
level
21%
SF Baumberg scores more
39%

Mülheimer at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mülheimer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Mülheimer 2–0 SF Baumberg

Mülheimer beat SF Baumberg 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at RuhrStadion in Mülheim an der Ruhr.