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Mülheimer vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Mülheimer
Mülheimer
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
11/11/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 14RuhrStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mülheimer37%
×Draw23%
KFC Uerdingen 0540%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheimer
1.67
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

creates per match

Mülheimer
1.94
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

Mülheimer
1.94
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

Mülheimer+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheimer ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mülheimer or draw
60%
Mülheimer or KFC Uerdingen 05
77%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
63%

Winning margin

Mülheimer wins by 2+
19%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mülheimer 1+ goals
81%
Mülheimer 2+ goals
50%
Mülheimer 3+ goals
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
82%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
52%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mülheimer (draw refunded)
48%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheimer at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheimer attack 1.94 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + Mülheimer defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mülheimer scores more
37%
level
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
40%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mülheimer vs KFC Uerdingen 05

KFC Uerdingen 05 beat Mülheimer 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at RuhrStadion in Mülheim an der Ruhr.