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Mülheim-Kärlich vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
FT
4 – 2
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
8/29/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Schul- & Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich28%
×Draw21%
Kaiserslautern II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.62
Kaiserslautern II
2.21

Kaiserslautern II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.63
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.92
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw
49%
Mülheim-Kärlich or Kaiserslautern II
79%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
72%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
13%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
80%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
48%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
22%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
89%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
65%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
36%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.63 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
28%
level
21%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
51%

Kaiserslautern II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mülheim-Kärlich 4–2 Kaiserslautern II

Mülheim-Kärlich beat Kaiserslautern II 4-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Schul- & Sportzentrum in Mülheim-Kärlich.