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Mülheim-Kärlich vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
5/20/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 11Schul- & Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich19%
×Draw19%
Jägersburg63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.25
Jägersburg
2.42

Jägersburg creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
0.50
Jägersburg
2.00

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83
Jägersburg
2.00

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw
37%
Mülheim-Kärlich or Jägersburg
81%
Draw or Jägersburg
81%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
7%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
71%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
36%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
13%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
91%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
69%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
23%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.50 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jägersburg attack 2.00 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
19%
level
19%
Jägersburg scores more
63%

Jägersburg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Mülheim-Kärlich 1–1 Jägersburg

Mülheim-Kärlich and Jägersburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Schul- & Sportzentrum in Mülheim-Kärlich.