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Mülheim-Kärlich vs Eisbachtal — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
FT
3 – 1
Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
11/27/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Schul- & Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich47%
×Draw21%
Eisbachtal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheim-Kärlich
2.08
Eisbachtal
1.71

Mülheim-Kärlich creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.63
Eisbachtal
1.50

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
1.92
Eisbachtal
2.52

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par
Eisbachtal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Eisbachtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw
68%
Mülheim-Kärlich or Eisbachtal
79%
Draw or Eisbachtal
53%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
27%
Eisbachtal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
87%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
61%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
34%
Eisbachtal 1+ goals
82%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
51%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
59%
Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

Eisbachtal away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.63 + Eisbachtal defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.08

Eisbachtal attack 1.50 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
47%
level
21%
Eisbachtal scores more
32%

Mülheim-Kärlich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mülheim-Kärlich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mülheim-Kärlich 3–1 Eisbachtal

Mülheim-Kärlich beat Eisbachtal 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Schul- & Sportzentrum in Mülheim-Kärlich.