Muleño 1–1 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Muleño

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Muleño30%

×Draw27%

UCAM Murcia II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.40

Muleño

1.10

UCAM Murcia II

1.40

UCAM Murcia II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 110 away

1.06

creates per match

1.33

1.46

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

56%

Muleño or UCAM Murcia II

73%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

70%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

12%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

67%

Muleño 2+ goals

30%

Muleño 3+ goals

10%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

75%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

41%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

40%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Muleño scores more

30%

level

27%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

44%

UCAM Murcia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff