Muleño vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Muleño57%
Montecasillas21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Muleño creates 80% more chances
Season form · 95 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Muleño ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches
Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Muleño attack 1.06 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.94
Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Muleño at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Cieza
Real Murcia II
Olímpico Totana
Unión Molinense
Mazarrón FC
UCAM Murcia II
Águilas II
Santa Cruz
Atlético Pulpileño
SFC Minerva
Bala Azul
Cartagena LU II
Balsicas Atlético
El Palmar
Santomera
UD CaravacaMuleño
Yeclano IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Muleño host Montecasillas on Sunday, 10 September 2023 at 16:30. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019/2020 season.
Muleño 3 – 1 Montecasillas
Muleño beat Montecasillas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 10, 2023.
Goals: Juan Lucas (36'), Pedro Ángel (78'), Wilson Saldana (85'), Fran Cuenca (90+4' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.