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Muleño vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Muleño34%
×Draw27%
Mazarrón FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.20
Mazarrón FC
1.33

Mazarrón FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 63 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
60%
Muleño or Mazarrón FC
73%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
66%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
14%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
70%
Muleño 2+ goals
34%
Muleño 3+ goals
12%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
74%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
38%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
46%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Muleño scores more
34%
level
27%
Mazarrón FC scores more
40%

Mazarrón FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muleño vs Mazarrón FC

Muleño and Mazarrón FC drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.