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Muleño vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
11/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Muleño21%
×Draw28%
Mar Menor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
0.78
Mar Menor
1.36

Mar Menor creates 74% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 26 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
49%
Muleño or Mar Menor
72%
Draw or Mar Menor
79%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
6%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
54%
Muleño 2+ goals
18%
Muleño 3+ goals
4%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
74%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
39%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
30%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.78

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Muleño scores more
21%
level
28%
Mar Menor scores more
51%

Mar Menor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muleño vs Mar Menor

Mar Menor beat Muleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon in Mula.