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Muleño vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Los Garres
Los Garres
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Muleño39%
×Draw27%
Los Garres34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.31
Los Garres
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 44 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
66%
Muleño or Los Garres
73%
Draw or Los Garres
61%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
17%
Los Garres wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
73%
Muleño 2+ goals
38%
Muleño 3+ goals
14%
Los Garres 1+ goals
70%
Los Garres 2+ goals
34%
Los Garres 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
53%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Los Garres attack 0.98 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Muleño scores more
39%
level
27%
Los Garres scores more
34%

Muleño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 1–2 Los Garres

Los Garres beat Muleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.