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Muleño vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Muleño26%
×Draw26%
Lorca Deportiva48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.06
Lorca Deportiva
1.52

Lorca Deportiva creates 43% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 80 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
52%
Muleño or Lorca Deportiva
74%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
74%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
10%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
65%
Muleño 2+ goals
29%
Muleño 3+ goals
9%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
78%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
45%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
36%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muleño scores more
26%
level
26%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
48%

Lorca Deportiva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 1–2 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Muleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon in Mula.