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Muleño vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Víctor Cadú 58' (pen)
Vitolo 20'
David Valdeolivas 5'
3/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Muleño31%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.08
La Unión Atlético
1.29

La Unión Atlético creates 19% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
59%
Muleño or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
69%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
12%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
66%
Muleño 2+ goals
29%
Muleño 3+ goals
10%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
72%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
37%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
43%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Muleño scores more
31%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
41%

La Unión Atlético at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
David Valdeolivas
20'
Vitolo
46'
Belencoso← Josema Vivancos
58'
Víctor CadúPenalty
65'
Tato← Vitolo
65'
Dani Díez← Sergio Jiménez
69'
Villa← José Villanueva
81'
Juan Ramos← Jesus Martinez
85'
Joaquin Lisón← Sergio Alcaraz
85'
Álex Briega← Sergio Arribas
88'
Javi Rosa← David Valdeolivas
Muleño
La
Nico Garnés
Garnés
S. De Echevarría
Echevarrí
Walter Navarro
Navarro
Adrián Aguirre
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
⚽
▼
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
▼
Jiménez
Sergio Arribas
▼
Arribas
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
⚽
▼
Vitolo
Josema Vivancos
▼
Vivancos
Toni Fernández
Fernández
Víctor Cadú
⚽
Cadú
Pedro Ángel
Ángel
Jesus Martinez
▼
Martinez
José Villanueva
▼
Villanuev
Cobos
Cobos
Fuentes
Fuentes
Sergio Alcaraz
▼
Alcaraz
Carrillo
Carrillo
Juan
Juan
Jorge Martínez
Martínez
Sergio Yúfera
Manager: Sergio Yúfera
69'▲Villa←▼José Villanueva
81'▲Juan Ramos←▼Jesus Martinez
85'▲Joaquin Lisón←▼Sergio Alcaraz

Muleño substitutes

VillaRamosLisón
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Belencoso←▼Josema Vivancos
65'▲Tato←▼Vitolo
65'▲Dani Díez←▼Sergio Jiménez
85'▲Álex Briega←▼Sergio Arribas
88'▲Javi Rosa←▼David Valdeolivas

La Unión Atlético substitutes

BelencosoTatoDíezBriegaRosa

Match Recap: Muleño vs La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Muleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 12, 2023.

Goals: David Valdeolivas (5'), Vitolo (20'), Víctor Cadú (58' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.