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Muleño vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
El Palmar
El Palmar
5/3/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Muleño38%
×Draw27%
El Palmar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.32
El Palmar
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 111 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
65%
Muleño or El Palmar
73%
Draw or El Palmar
62%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
17%
El Palmar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
73%
Muleño 2+ goals
38%
Muleño 3+ goals
15%
El Palmar 1+ goals
71%
El Palmar 2+ goals
36%
El Palmar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
52%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Muleño scores more
38%
level
27%
El Palmar scores more
35%

Muleño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Muleño 0 – 2 El Palmar

El Palmar beat Muleño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.