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Muleño vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Muleño44%
×Draw25%
EDMF Churra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.50
EDMF Churra
1.21

Muleño creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
69%
Muleño or EDMF Churra
75%
Draw or EDMF Churra
56%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
22%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
78%
Muleño 2+ goals
44%
Muleño 3+ goals
19%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
70%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
34%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
59%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Muleño scores more
44%
level
25%
EDMF Churra scores more
31%

Muleño at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muleño vs EDMF Churra

EDMF Churra beat Muleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.