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Muleño vs Cieza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 1
Cieza
Cieza
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Muleño25%
×Draw27%
Cieza48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
0.96
Cieza
1.44

Cieza creates 50% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 66 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Cieza
1.42

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Cieza
0.86

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Cieza+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Cieza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
52%
Muleño or Cieza
73%
Draw or Cieza
75%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
9%
Cieza wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
62%
Muleño 2+ goals
25%
Muleño 3+ goals
7%
Cieza 1+ goals
76%
Cieza 2+ goals
42%
Cieza 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
34%
Cieza (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Cieza away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Cieza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cieza attack 1.42 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muleño scores more
25%
level
27%
Cieza scores more
48%

Cieza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 1–6 Cieza

Cieza beat Muleño 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.