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Muleño vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Muleño29%
×Draw27%
Cartagena II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.06
Cartagena II
1.40

Cartagena II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 27 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
55%
Muleño or Cartagena II
73%
Draw or Cartagena II
71%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
11%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
65%
Muleño 2+ goals
29%
Muleño 3+ goals
9%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
41%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
39%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muleño scores more
29%
level
27%
Cartagena II scores more
45%

Cartagena II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muleño vs Cartagena II

Cartagena II beat Muleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.