Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Muleño vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
CANC
00:00
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Muleño37%
×Draw27%
Cartagena FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.29
Cartagena FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 44 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
64%
Muleño or Cartagena FC
73%
Draw or Cartagena FC
63%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
16%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
72%
Muleño 2+ goals
37%
Muleño 3+ goals
14%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
72%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
36%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
51%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Muleño scores more
37%
level
27%
Cartagena FC scores more
36%

Muleño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Muleño host Cartagena FC

April 12, 2020: Muleño take on Cartagena FC in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Muleño host Cartagena FC at Estadio Municipal de Mula.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.