Muleño 2–0 Bullense: Result & Stats

Muleño

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bullense

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Muleño48%

×Draw25%

Bullense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchBullense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.12

Muleño

1.59

Bullense

1.12

Muleño creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 79 away

1.06

creates per match

0.78

1.46

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

Bullense

0.78

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

Bullense

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Bullense →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

73%

Muleño or Bullense

75%

Draw or Bullense

52%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

25%

Bullense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

80%

Muleño 2+ goals

47%

Muleño 3+ goals

21%

Bullense 1+ goals

67%

Bullense 2+ goals

31%

Bullense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

64%

Bullense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bullense attack 0.78 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muleño scores more

48%

level

25%

Bullense scores more

27%

Muleño at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff