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Muleño vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Muleño42%
×Draw27%
Balsicas Atlético32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.35
Balsicas Atlético
1.14

Muleño creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 51 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
68%
Muleño or Balsicas Atlético
73%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
58%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
19%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
74%
Muleño 2+ goals
39%
Muleño 3+ goals
15%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
68%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
32%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
57%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muleño scores more
42%
level
27%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
32%

Muleño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muleño vs Balsicas Atlético

Muleño and Balsicas Atlético drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mula Deportiva Jose Soriano Chacon in Mula.