Muleño 1–4 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

Muleño

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Bala Azul

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Muleño36%

×Draw28%

Bala Azul36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.18

Muleño

1.19

Bala Azul

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 51 away

1.06

creates per match

0.90

1.46

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Bala Azul →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

64%

Muleño or Bala Azul

72%

Draw or Bala Azul

64%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

15%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

70%

Muleño 2+ goals

33%

Muleño 3+ goals

12%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

69%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

33%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

50%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Muleño scores more

36%

level

28%

Bala Azul scores more

36%

Muleño at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff