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Muleño vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Muleño27%
×Draw28%
Atlético Pulpileño45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
0.96
Atlético Pulpileño
1.31

Atlético Pulpileño creates 36% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 93 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
55%
Muleño or Atlético Pulpileño
72%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
73%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
62%
Muleño 2+ goals
25%
Muleño 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
38%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muleño scores more
27%
level
28%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
45%

Atlético Pulpileño at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 0–1 Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Muleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.