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Muleño vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Algar
Algar
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muleño48%
×Draw26%
Algar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.50
Algar
1.05

Muleño creates 43% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Algar
0.65

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Algar
1.94

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
73%
Muleño or Algar
74%
Draw or Algar
52%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
24%
Algar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
78%
Muleño 2+ goals
44%
Muleño 3+ goals
19%
Algar 1+ goals
65%
Algar 2+ goals
28%
Algar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
64%
Algar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Algar attack 0.65 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muleño scores more
48%
level
26%
Algar scores more
27%

Muleño at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Muleño 1 – 1 Algar

Muleño and Algar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.