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Mulembe United vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Mulembe United
Mulembe United
FT
0 – 3
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
4/13/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mulembe United39%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mulembe United
1.29
SamWest Blackboots
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mulembe United
1.20
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Mulembe United
0.97
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Mulembe United+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulembe United ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mulembe United or draw
66%
Mulembe United or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
61%

Winning margin

Mulembe United wins by 2+
17%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mulembe United 1+ goals
72%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
37%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
14%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
70%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
33%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mulembe United (draw refunded)
53%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mulembe United attack 1.20 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mulembe United scores more
39%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
34%

Mulembe United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mulembe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mulembe United vs SamWest Blackboots

SamWest Blackboots beat Mulembe United 3-0 in Super League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium in Kisumu.