Mulembe United vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Mulembe United30%
Nairobi United40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nairobi United creates 20% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mulembe United ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches
Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mulembe United attack 1.20 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95
Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Nairobi United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Migori Youth
3K
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
Kisumu All Stars
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
MCF
Mwatate UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mulembe United host Nairobi United on Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Mulembe United vs Nairobi United
Nairobi United beat Mulembe United 1-0 in Super League on March 3, 2024.
The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.