Mulembe United 1–1 Dimba Patriots: Result & Stats

Mulembe United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dimba Patriots

4/21/2024

Super League · Round 28Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mulembe United45%

×Draw30%

Dimba Patriots25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mulembe UnitedExpected goals in this matchDimba Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.82

Mulembe United

1.19

Dimba Patriots

0.82

Mulembe United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

1.20

creates per match

0.67

0.97

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Mulembe United

1.20

Dimba Patriots

0.67

allows per match

Mulembe United

0.97

Dimba Patriots

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mulembe United+0.00on par

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulembe United ↓

Dimba Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mulembe United or draw

75%

Mulembe United or Dimba Patriots

70%

Draw or Dimba Patriots

55%

Winning margin

Mulembe United wins by 2+

19%

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mulembe United 1+ goals

70%

Mulembe United 2+ goals

33%

Mulembe United 3+ goals

12%

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

56%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

20%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mulembe United (draw refunded)

64%

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mulembe United attack 1.20 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mulembe United scores more

45%

level

30%

Dimba Patriots scores more

25%

Mulembe United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mulembe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff