Mulembe United 0–0 Coastal Heroes: Result & Stats

Mulembe United

FT

0 – 0

Coastal Heroes

12/11/2024

Super League · Round 12Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mulembe United55%

×Draw25%

Coastal Heroes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mulembe UnitedExpected goals in this matchCoastal Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.89

Mulembe United

1.65

Coastal Heroes

0.89

Mulembe United creates 85% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 72 away

1.20

creates per match

0.81

0.97

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Mulembe United

1.20

Coastal Heroes

0.81

allows per match

Mulembe United

0.97

Coastal Heroes

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mulembe United+0.00on par

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulembe United ↓

Coastal Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mulembe United or draw

80%

Mulembe United or Coastal Heroes

75%

Draw or Coastal Heroes

45%

Winning margin

Mulembe United wins by 2+

30%

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mulembe United 1+ goals

81%

Mulembe United 2+ goals

49%

Mulembe United 3+ goals

23%

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

59%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

22%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mulembe United (draw refunded)

73%

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mulembe United attack 1.20 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mulembe United scores more

55%

level

25%

Coastal Heroes scores more

20%

Mulembe United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mulembe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff