Mukura 0–0 Rwamagana City: Result & Stats

Mukura

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rwamagana City

11/26/2023

National Soccer League · Round 11Stade Huye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mukura49%

×Draw28%

Rwamagana City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MukuraExpected goals in this matchRwamagana City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.81

Mukura

1.35

Rwamagana City

0.81

Mukura creates 67% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

0.69

0.94

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Mukura

1.27

Rwamagana City

0.69

allows per match

Mukura

0.94

Rwamagana City

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mukura+0.00on par

Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mukura ↓

Rwamagana City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mukura or draw

78%

Mukura or Rwamagana City

72%

Draw or Rwamagana City

51%

Winning margin

Mukura wins by 2+

24%

Rwamagana City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mukura 1+ goals

74%

Mukura 2+ goals

39%

Mukura 3+ goals

15%

Rwamagana City 1+ goals

56%

Rwamagana City 2+ goals

19%

Rwamagana City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mukura (draw refunded)

69%

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mukura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mukura attack 1.27 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + Mukura defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mukura scores more

49%

level

28%

Rwamagana City scores more

22%

Mukura at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff