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Mukura vs Heroes — National Soccer League 2019

Mukura
Mukura
FT
1 – 0
Heroes
Heroes
3/3/2020National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 21Stade Huye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mukura49%
×Draw28%
Heroes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mukura
1.36
Heroes
0.83

Mukura creates 64% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mukura
1.27
Heroes
0.73

allows per match

Mukura
0.94
Heroes
1.45

finishing

Mukura+0.00on par
Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mukura ↓

Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mukura or draw
77%
Mukura or Heroes
72%
Draw or Heroes
51%

Winning margin

Mukura wins by 2+
24%
Heroes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mukura 1+ goals
74%
Mukura 2+ goals
39%
Mukura 3+ goals
16%
Heroes 1+ goals
56%
Heroes 2+ goals
20%
Heroes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mukura (draw refunded)
68%
Heroes (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mukura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Heroes away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mukura attack 1.27 + Heroes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Heroes attack 0.73 + Mukura defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mukura scores more
49%
level
28%
Heroes scores more
23%

Mukura at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mukura 1 – 0 Heroes

Mukura beat Heroes 1-0 in National Soccer League on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Huye in Butare.