Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mukura vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Mukura
Mukura
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
F. Irambona 83'
I. Sunday 78', 66' (pen)
9/17/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 4Stade Huye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mukura52%
×Draw27%
Etoile de l'Est21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mukura
1.47
Etoile de l'Est
0.82

Mukura creates 79% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mukura
1.27
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Mukura
0.94
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Mukura+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mukura ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mukura or draw
79%
Mukura or Etoile de l'Est
73%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
48%

Winning margin

Mukura wins by 2+
27%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mukura 1+ goals
77%
Mukura 2+ goals
43%
Mukura 3+ goals
18%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
56%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
20%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mukura (draw refunded)
71%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mukura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mukura attack 1.27 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Mukura defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mukura scores more
52%
level
27%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
21%

Mukura at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
I. SundayPenalty
78'
I. Sunday
83'
F. Irambona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Mukura 0–3 Etoile de l'Est

Etoile de l'Est beat Mukura 3-0 in National Soccer League on September 17, 2023.

Goals: I. Sunday (66' pen, 78'), F. Irambona (83').

The match was played at Stade Huye in Butare.