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Muktijoddha SKC vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Muktijoddha SKC
Muktijoddha SKC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
2/24/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium (Gopalganj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Muktijoddha SKC42%
×Draw26%
Team BJMC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muktijoddha SKC
1.41
Team BJMC
1.18

Muktijoddha SKC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

creates per match

Muktijoddha SKC
1.06
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Muktijoddha SKC
1.77
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Muktijoddha SKC+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muktijoddha SKC ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Muktijoddha SKC or draw
69%
Muktijoddha SKC or Team BJMC
74%
Draw or Team BJMC
58%

Winning margin

Muktijoddha SKC wins by 2+
20%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Muktijoddha SKC 1+ goals
76%
Muktijoddha SKC 2+ goals
41%
Muktijoddha SKC 3+ goals
17%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
69%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
33%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Muktijoddha SKC (draw refunded)
57%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muktijoddha SKC at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muktijoddha SKC attack 1.06 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Muktijoddha SKC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muktijoddha SKC scores more
42%
level
26%
Team BJMC scores more
31%

Muktijoddha SKC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muktijoddha SKC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Muktijoddha SKC 2–0 Team BJMC

Muktijoddha SKC beat Team BJMC 2-0 in Premier League on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium (Gopalganj).