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Muhoroni Youth vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
1 – 0
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
5/8/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Muhoroni Youth43%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
1.48
Zoo Kericho
1.23

Muhoroni Youth creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 14 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.32
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.82
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
68%
Muhoroni Youth or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
57%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
21%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
77%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
43%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
71%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
35%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
58%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 1.32 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
43%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
32%

Muhoroni Youth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Muhoroni Youth 1–0 Zoo Kericho

Muhoroni Youth beat Zoo Kericho 1-0 in Super League on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.