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Muhoroni Youth vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
2 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
3/6/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Muhoroni Youth55%
×Draw26%
Vihiga United FC20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
1.55
Vihiga United FC
0.81

Muhoroni Youth creates 91% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 55 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.32
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.82
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
80%
Muhoroni Youth or Vihiga United FC
74%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
45%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
29%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
79%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
46%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
20%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
19%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
74%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 1.32 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
55%
level
26%
Vihiga United FC scores more
20%

Muhoroni Youth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Muhoroni Youth 2–1 Vihiga United FC

Muhoroni Youth beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in Super League on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.