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Muhoroni Youth vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
Unknown 89'
Unknown 45+5'
10/26/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Muhoroni Youth42%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
1.35
SamWest Blackboots
1.12

Muhoroni Youth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.32
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.82
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
69%
Muhoroni Youth or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
58%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
19%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
74%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
39%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
15%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
67%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
31%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
58%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 1.32 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
42%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
31%

Muhoroni Youth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Muhoroni Youth 1–1 SamWest Blackboots

Muhoroni Youth and SamWest Blackboots drew 1-1 in Super League on October 26, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+5', 89').

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.